Braun Poll Disputes Media Polls 'Hold Off On 'Rahm Coronation,'" Braun pollster Says
February 13, 2011 - A citywide poll conducted about the Chicago Mayor race for the campaign of Carol Moseley Braun showed front-runner Rahm Emanuel still under the 50% plus one level of support needed to avoid a runoff election.
The poll, conducted February 10-12 by Victory Research, of 801 randomly selected likely voters in the Chicago Mayor election February 22, found Emanuel in the lead with 44.8% of the vote, former US Senator Carol Moseley Braun in second with 22.5%, Gery Chico in third with 16.1% and City Clerk Miguel Del Valle in fourth with 9.6%. Two other candidates had 2.0% between them. Five percent of the respondents said they were still undecided in the race.
The poll's margin of error is 3.46%.
Braun's second place standing is largely because of her standing in the African-American community. Among African-American voters, who were 45% of the poll's sample, Braun, the first woman African-American US Senator, led the field with 44.3% of the vote, followed by Emanuel with 32.4%.
"Senator Braun's support among African-American voters is broad and deep," pollster Rod McCulloch said. "It was built over thirty years of public service."
McCulloch said that media polls often under poll minority voters in local races.
"It may be a coincidence, but if so it is an amazing coincidence, that media polls almost always show their candidate winning."
McCulloch said that fully 44% of voters polled said they could still change their mind in the race. "The media should hold off on the Rahm Coronation until the voters have had a chance to make up their minds," McCulloch said.
The city's demographics showing African-Americans to be almost 45% of the city's registered voter base, combined with an increase in African-American wards, and non-competitive Aldermanic races in six wards with white Alderamen and one with a Latino Alderman (signifying perhaps a lower turnout in those wards), signal that a run-off election in the Mayor's race is likely, McCulloch said.